Crypto Weekly
March 10, 2023

Btc dips, Grayscale wins against SEC and Stablecoins on Layer 2 inflow surges

This week was jam-packed with exciting news in the world of crypto! Congress heard Coinbase’s Paul Grewal argue for SEC registration laws, while Binance received the green light to acquire Voyager assets. BTC took a dip below $20k following Fed Powell’s speech, but on the bright side, stablecoin inflows to Eth L2's skyrocketed to over $2B! And let’s not forget about the ever-booming NFT market with two new marketplaces going live - it’s time to get in on the action!


  • BTC dipped below $22k in anticipation of Powell's testimony, before hitting $20k.
  • Paxos report shows high interest in crypto despite the market dip
  • Grayscale's BTC ETF wins first battle against SEC, G20 discusses a global approach to crypto regulation
  • Xapo Bank enables near-instant bitcoin payments, Pakistan implements blockchain tech for KYC
  • Ethereum drops below $1400, stablecoin inflows to Ethereum L2s rise 5% to over $2B

Movers and Shakers

Top 7-Day Gainers:
  1. KAVA +8.96%
  2. DAO +6.6%
  3. LQTY +1.57%
  4. LEO +1.20%
  5. GUSD +0.41%

Top 7-Day Losers:
  1. STX -34.90%
  2. AGIX -32.51%
  3. MINA -31.07%
  4. RNDR -30.17%
  5. DASH -30.04%


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Technical Summary

Bitcoin Pulse

Bitcoin dropped below $20,000 this week after finding brief support at the daily EMAs while we saw the bitcoin network reach record-breaking hash rate with taproot adoption picking up speed. Meanwhile Argo Blockchain mining company continued its increasing bitcoin mining leading to outpacing difficulty growth.

  • CryptoQuant analyst found that Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) had reached the crucial 0.2 (where a value below 0 indicates accumulation and above 0.5 distribution).
  • BTC funding rates confirmed the lack of confidence that swept the market at press time with the highest negative funding rate year to date. 

Bitcoin micro


  • LTFs showing breakout signs due to HTF's high volatility
  • Price stalled at $19,500 unmitigated bullish order block
  • Two possible scenarios: retracing into discount ($20,750) or crashing down to deeper discounted prices target
  • Price to decide whether to continue retracing higher or continue the downtrend
  • The current week's end is to be watched closely.

The LTFs show signs of breakout given the HTF's high volatility. We've now seen price stall at the unmitigated bullish order block at $19,500, and we'll watch closely how we end the current week. 

Two scenarios are likely to take place, either we retrace into a discount for the last 4H range ($20,750), where price will decide to keep retracing higher, or continue its downward trend. Secondly, price fails to find support, and we crash down to our deeper discounted prices target. 

Bitcoin Macro


  • Consolidation at support to start the week.
  • Price broke below 1D 50 and 200 EMAs with momentum.
  • Short-term support is likely found at discounted prices, fair value gaps, and previous order blocks.
  • Expect a continued bearish trend down to a deep discount or retest of daily EMAs after a bullish retracement.

We got consolidation at support to start the week, forecasting that if the bear scenario was to take hold, a run down to $20,000 would be probable, and that is exactly what we got.

Price hovered around the 1D 50 and 200 EMAs before aggressively breaking below, raiding 1D sell-side liquidity with momentum, signalling further bearish prices. 

The most likely place short-term support would be found would be as we tested discounted prices, fair value gaps, and previous unmitigated bullish order blocks, which is what we got at just below $20,000.

Now we expect either continued bearish trending of price down into a deep discount around $18,000. Alternatively, a retest of the daily 50 and 200 EMAs after a bullish retracement could set in motion selling at value for deeper bearish trends. 

Altcoins on the move

Traders saw Ethereum's low volatility to have been caused by the anticipation of the upcoming Shanghai hard fork after a series of delays, finally ending the week with a drop below $1400. Ethereum’s futures premium moved to 3.1% down from 4.9% one week prior becoming more distant from the 5% neutral-to-bullish mark. Stablecoins had an impact too, with inflows to Ethereum L2s rising 5% to over $2B.

ETH macro


  • ETH's manipulation pattern attracted liquidity for a breakout below 1D sell-side liquidity
  • Bearish order blocks mitigated premium prices and led to an aggressive breakout to the downside
  • Anticipated bearish move due to aggressive bullish trend since the start of 2023
  • Discounted prices, bullish order blocks, and 1D sell-side liquidity now act as value zone for buyers
  • Expect an aggressive bullish retracement or continuation of a bearish run down into the value zone with no retracement beforehand.

ETH's clean manipulation pattern accumulated buyers and sellers to act as liquidity for its breakout below the 1D sell-side liquidity, which successfully played out. After reaching premium prices, and mitigating bearish order blocks positioned above 1D buy-side liquidity, we have now seen price aggressively breakout to the downside. 

From the bullish perspective, however, this bearish move was anticipated given the aggressive bullish trend we saw initiate since the start of 2023, bringing price back to a place of discounted prices, accompanied by bullish order blocks and 1D sell-side liquidity to act as a value zone for buyers who anticipate a macro bullish cycle to enter their positions. 

Moving forward, we expect either an aggressive bullish retracement into retesting the underside of the 50 & 200 ema for deeper bearish prices, or we continue our bearish run down into the value zone with no signs of retracement beforehand.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article is for general market education and commentary and is not intended to serve as financial, investment, or any other type of advice.

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